Quantifying Transition Climate Risks in Real Estate Investment Models: The Development of the Preserve Tool

Webinar-Zusammenfassung: The real estate industry lacks a consistent approach to embedding transition risks and opportunities into investment decision-making which is slowing decarbonisation efforts.  

This webinar, part of ULI Europe’s C Change programme, introduces Preserve, a new tool developed in collaboration with Synergetic, Mott MacDonald, and CBRE UK. Preserve will enable real estate professionals to quantify the financial impacts of transitioning to a net-zero economy, helping businesses integrate factors like energy costs, carbon pricing, and future demand into investment models.

The webinar began with an outline of the ULI C Change Programme work on transition risk delivered by Aleksandra Smith-Kozlowska, Director, Research, ULI Europe.  

Derek Wilson, CEO, Synergetic B.V. then delivered a presentation on the Preserve Tool – its concept, examples of its potential capabilities and the next steps.  

Aleks then moderated a discussion and Derek was joined on the panel by:

• Marvie Haas, Head of Impact Investing, Catella Investment Management
• Paul Kennedy, Managing Director, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
• Daniel Chang, Managing Director and Head of ESG, Hines Europe Ltd 

Key Takeaways:

• A Standardised Approach to Transition Risk – Learn how an industry-wide methodology can accelerate real estate’s path to decarbonisation.
• How the Preserve Tool Works – See how it aligns with ULI’s C Change Transition Risk Assessment Guidelines, providing a practical, scalable framework for the industry.
• Industry Perspectives – Hear insights from leading investors and sustainability experts on balancing financial performance with climate action. 

The panel considered whether ESG-alignment is perceived as a green premium or a brown discount in valuation. The experts highlighted that the market is increasingly shifting towards a brown discount model—where assets that fail to align with ESG expectations face devaluation and higher risk exposure, rather than a simple green premium for sustainable assets. This reinforces the financial necessity of integrating transition risk into investment strategies.

The panel also talked to the benefits of the Preserve tool’s approach - Preserve factors in a wider range of dynamic transition risks and opportunities, including shifts in energy demand, regulation, capital expenditure, and rent projections.  

Don’t miss this opportunity to gain knowledge of practical strategies for embedding transition risks into your investment models and driving financial resilience.