Emerging Trends in Real Estate® United States and Canada 2025 |ULI 知识平台

十月 29, 2024

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2025 Emerging Trends Report US & Canada (Digital) 2025 Emerging Trends Report US & Canada (PDF)

报告摘要：

报告摘要：: Now in its 46th edition, the 2025 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® report outlines new market dynamics, favored locations and property sector opportunities influencing the overall health of the industry. The skies are finally clearing over commercial real estate markets, even if some dark clouds still linger. Industry people are more sanguine than a year ago, though also realistic. Better times are ahead, but the healing will take time.

报告摘要： Now in its 46th edition, the 2025 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® report outlines new market dynamics, favored locations and property sector opportunities influencing the overall health of the industry. The skies are finally clearing over commercial real estate markets, even if some dark clouds still linger. Industry people are more sanguine than a year ago, though also realistic. Better times are ahead, but the healing will take time.

There is a decidedly mixed outlook for commercial real estate markets. In isolation, the lower interest rates will be welcomed. More transactions will be able to move forward, and more loans will be refinanced. That means more deal activity for brokers, investors, and lenders. That’s all good. However, slower economic and job growth reduces growth in net operating income. Tenant demand may fall as job growth moderates, affecting space absorption, occupancy, and rent growth. And weakening fundamentals also constrain demand for CRE assets and limit price appreciation. This is the yin and the yang of falling interest rates.

Real estate capital markets are recovering. The Fed’s new direction and clear guidance on future moves are aiding in the price discovery needed to reduce bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers. Plus, the lower debt costs are improving deal economics for more projects. Together, these factors will encourage more investors and developers to move off the sidelines and transact, whether to buy, sell, lend, borrow, or refinance. However, in many markets, development still seems further off.

The pandemic triggered profound shifts in how tenants use different types of space: how much, where, and what kind. The changes began with the lockdown as many sectors of the economy were forced to adapt to new ways of operating, and many of those adaptations have endured in some form. By now, these shifts have either largely played out, or their direction is reasonably foreseeable. Despite the broad demand recovery, vacancy rates are rising across many property types as surging supply outpaces absorption in many markets. All this new construction is swinging the power pendulum to the tenants.

As climate change intensifies, its impact on the real estate industry is becoming more pronounced, extending beyond extreme heat to include risks like flooding, cold snaps, and wildfires. Southern regions, historically unaccustomed to severe cold, are facing new threats, with buildings and energy grids ill-equipped to handle the damage and power outages caused by plunging temperatures. At the same time, migration patterns from the Frost Belt to the Sun Belt are moderating, with climate risks increasingly influencing homebuyers' decisions alongside affordability and quality of life. Nearly half of homes nationwide are at risk from at least one type of severe climate event, making insurance harder to obtain. In response, real estate firms are incorporating climate risk into their decision-making and risk assessments, preparing for more frequent shifts in market dynamics and infrastructure resilience.

Housing affordability is no longer confined to large coastal cities. The multifamily market in 2025 will be shaped by the issue of supply, with a wave of apartment deliveries peaking in 2024 and concerns about a supply glut in high-growth Sunbelt markets. However, industry specialists anticipate that demand will remain strong due to job growth, favorable demographics and immigration. Rent growth has slowed in high-supply markets but remains positive in regions with limited new construction. An increasing number of renters are cost-burdened, underscoring the need for more market-rate and affordable housing through new policies and streamlined development.

Property Type Outlook

Stability has returned to property markets, and investors are now addressing cyclical issues like oversupply and adapting to changing consumer and tenant preferences. One exception is the rise in demand for data centers which is soaring due to the widespread growth of artificial intelligence, while other niche property types are also seeing strong growth.

Learn more about the 5 Emerging Property Trends that we expect for 2025 and beyond:

Industrial Smart Growth: The next stage of tactical network optimization
Data Centers: Navigating power and constraints and skyrocketing demand
Senior Housing: Building new muscles
Retail Resilience: Weathering every storm
Innovating the Suburbs: Is Life Sciences’ growth sustainable?

Markets to Watch

Geographic preferences are changing even if many of the broad trends have continued from recent years. Sun Belt markets still rule the rankings, particularly the largest Super Sun Belt metro areas, but some formerly high-flying smaller Magnet markets are losing altitude. Meanwhile, many Snow Belt markets are getting another look from investors and are climbing the rankings. Still, the overall market outlook remains tepid. Explore in-depth case studies on the top 5 markets, Dallas, Miami, Houston, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Nashville, as well as thinks year’s movers and shakers, Manhattan, Detroit, Columbus, Charleston, and New Orleans.

关于房地产®中的新兴趋势

新兴趋势 in Real Estate® 是房地产和土地使用行业最受推崇的年度行业展望之一，由普华永道和城市土地学会联合发布。通过结合数百名行业专业人士的访谈和调查回复，该报告按地区提供了对房地产投资、发展趋势和资本市场的深入展望。该报告有四个版本：美洲、亚太地区、欧洲和全球。自 2003 年以来发布的所有新兴趋势 in Real Estate® 报告均可在 Knowledge Finder 上找到。

城市土地学会和普华永道

新兴趋势 in Real Estate® 由城市土地学会和普华永道联合赞助。自 2003 年以来，城市土地学会和普华永道合作编制了最全面的房地产和土地使用行业报告之一。普华永道是一个由遍布 158 个国家/地区的公司组成的全球网络，拥有超过 236,000 名员工，致力于提供高质量的保证、咨询和税务服务。了解更多关于普华永道的信息，请访问pwc.com .

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